Post by Admin on Oct 26, 2019 1:05:41 GMT
US tanks in Syria... Another change of plan (again)?
Earlier on this week, we announced that members of the US DoD were trying to convince president Trump to keep troops around the oil fields of Deir Ezzor "to protect" them. Trump seemed receptive and even hinted at an America takeover of those fields with the aim of exploiting them. We also relayed the worries or doubts some defence experts had with this plan: A light American presence would expose those servicemen to increased hazard as they'd be left with very little support in an ever increasingly hostile environment.
However, for the past 24 hours, gossips have filtered about a possible US armoured deployment over the Syrian Conoco oil fields of Deir Ezzor, instead. This deployment, probably from armoured units based in Kuwait, would probably be company sized, i.e. 14 Abrams tanks and/or Bradley IFVs with 200-300 men. Other media have spoken about a force of roughly 500 men.
This raises more questions: How would such a contingent be supplied and sustained? US forces in the region have already vacated their bases and airfields. Those that were not destroyed are now occupied by Syrian and Russian forces. The main Syrian road to Iraq passes through the Syrian held border town of Abu Kamal. US forces used to transit between NorthEastern Syria and the Iraqi Kurdistan through the road network of the Hasaka province. However, following the US withdrawal, Syrian and Russian troops have moved in the area as well as in Hasaka town itself. This means that a US armoured deployment in the Deir Ezzor area would have to be supplied and sustained through the secondary road network linking Iraq to Syria. Said road network would also have to be secured... In this scenario, we end up wth a figure close to 1,000 men needed at all levels. That's the amount of US personnel currently being withdrawn from Syria!
President Trump has also hinted at the possibility of Kurds relocating in the Deir Ezzor province... This would play into the hands of Erdogan who wants to relocate Syrian refugees in NorthEastern Syria... The consequences of a massive influx of Sunni Arabs in Kurdish areas in NorthEastern Syria coupled with an influx of Kurds in Deir Ezzor, a predominently Arab/Assyrian region would most probably lead to unrest in both of those regions...
Earlier on this week, we announced that members of the US DoD were trying to convince president Trump to keep troops around the oil fields of Deir Ezzor "to protect" them. Trump seemed receptive and even hinted at an America takeover of those fields with the aim of exploiting them. We also relayed the worries or doubts some defence experts had with this plan: A light American presence would expose those servicemen to increased hazard as they'd be left with very little support in an ever increasingly hostile environment.
However, for the past 24 hours, gossips have filtered about a possible US armoured deployment over the Syrian Conoco oil fields of Deir Ezzor, instead. This deployment, probably from armoured units based in Kuwait, would probably be company sized, i.e. 14 Abrams tanks and/or Bradley IFVs with 200-300 men. Other media have spoken about a force of roughly 500 men.
This raises more questions: How would such a contingent be supplied and sustained? US forces in the region have already vacated their bases and airfields. Those that were not destroyed are now occupied by Syrian and Russian forces. The main Syrian road to Iraq passes through the Syrian held border town of Abu Kamal. US forces used to transit between NorthEastern Syria and the Iraqi Kurdistan through the road network of the Hasaka province. However, following the US withdrawal, Syrian and Russian troops have moved in the area as well as in Hasaka town itself. This means that a US armoured deployment in the Deir Ezzor area would have to be supplied and sustained through the secondary road network linking Iraq to Syria. Said road network would also have to be secured... In this scenario, we end up wth a figure close to 1,000 men needed at all levels. That's the amount of US personnel currently being withdrawn from Syria!
President Trump has also hinted at the possibility of Kurds relocating in the Deir Ezzor province... This would play into the hands of Erdogan who wants to relocate Syrian refugees in NorthEastern Syria... The consequences of a massive influx of Sunni Arabs in Kurdish areas in NorthEastern Syria coupled with an influx of Kurds in Deir Ezzor, a predominently Arab/Assyrian region would most probably lead to unrest in both of those regions...
Finally, rumours have filtered about serious disagreements between the Syrian YPG and US state department prior to the sudden US withdrawal from the region: It appears state department representatives were pushing for the YPG to work with jihadi militias in Syria. This request was constantly blocked/refused by the YPG leadership. The apparent aim of the state department is to counterbalance the Iranian influence in Syria with the help of Sunni militias, some of them affiliated to Al Qaeda... If proven true, this strategy could only further unbalance the country/region with negative consequences for everyone for years to come: Sunni insurections are behind both the iraqi and Syrian civil wars and are linked to both ISIS and Al Qaeda... In any case, the US department seems to currently be working on peeling Arab and Assyrian elements fron the SDF, isolating and weakening the YPG. The main reason is again the US pivot toward (against) Iran.
