Post by whitehorse on Nov 7, 2019 22:05:05 GMT
Here our annual future-looking discussion of global threats, industry trends, advanced technology, national-security policy and more. I moderated the opening panel, which was ostensibly about the national industrial base — but we sure spent a lot of time talking about a looming fiscal cliff. What, you say, didn't Congress pass a two-year budget deal earlier this year?
They did, but just for top-line figures. Lawmakers still need to iron out the details and things like whether to fund President Trump's much-desired border wall have become major sticking points. So there is no defense appropriations bill or authorization bill yet. The government is being funded through a continuing resolution, which freezes spending a fiscal 2019 levels even though fiscal 2020 started on Oct. 1. Lawmakers approved a CR that runs through Nov. 21, meaning they have until then to extend the CR or pass a year-long appropriations bill. If neither of those things happen, the government shuts down.
Our panelists this morning — Eric Fanning, CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association; Hawk Carlisle, CEO of the National Defense Industrial Association; and Charles Harrington, CEO of Parsons — seemed in agreement that they would like to see the budget passed annually before the fiscal year ends and that a yearlong CR is not good for business.
"China and Russia don't have continuing resolutions," Carlisle said. "Their industry never has to deal with that."
The retired Air Force general, expressed support for bipartisan legislation that would allow Congress to pass two-year budgets. "It kind of takes the topline budget out of the political football realm and puts it into a little bit more regular order," Carlisle said.
Added Fanning, a former Army secretary: "We have an annual budget that we create every year and gets passed every year, which is just not an effective way to plan for the Department of Defense based on how long it takes to build the equipment and to train the people who use it."
The current budget, with seemingly annual continuing resolutions "is very disruptive for the Department of Defense and for industry to plan around that."
"Absolutely the most important thing we can do for the department and for the industrial base is to get some stability back into the process," Fanning said. "If we can lengthen that planning timeline that's even better."
Harrington said CRs hurt technology development.
"The pace of change of technology is just ever going, ever increasing, so you can't just take a time out and expect yourself to stay up with you adversaries and competition," he said.
So what's the outlook going for 2020 and beyond?
"Most people are expecting that the current defense budget is a highwater mark no matter what happens in the next election," Fanning said. "In many ways it's great that we've had two good years for the department to catch up on some things, but…there needs to be some commitment, some understanding, and some stability for a very long horizon."
Gen. Dave Goldfein, the Air Force Chief of Staff, said Wednesday that 2021 might be "the last good year," after two years of far-above-inflation growth.
JUST IN: Right as we were about to hit send, the Pentagon sent this list of consequences of a six-month continuing resolution:
Army:
31 production rate increases will be delayed, putting at risk programs like the UH-60M helicopter and necessary Stryker upgrades.
Army modernization efforts for the Assured-Positioning, Navigation and Timing Cross Functional Team will be postponed, preventing procurement of new capabilities valued and halting the current fielding of systems to 2nd Cavalry Regiment and rotational Armored Brigade Combat Teams executing missions across Europe.
Air Force:
Munitions procurement will be reduced by 1,000 Joint Direct Attack Munition tailkits, 99 Sidewinder Air-to-Air Missiles and 665 Small Diameter Bomb II munitions, which will constrain industrial production capabilities and delay inventory buildup.
F-15EX development and production will be delayed, which will force the Air Force to operate and sustain an aging F-15C fleet longer than planned, incurring added extensive maintenance actions.
Navy:
Operation and Maintenance shortfalls will curtail 14 ship availabilities, cancel ship underway training, and shutdown non-deployed CVW/expeditionary squadrons.
The delivery of one VIRGINIA SSN, one Fleet Ocean Tug, and two Landing Craft Utility vessels will be delayed.
The retired Air Force general, expressed support for bipartisan legislation that would allow Congress to pass two-year budgets. "It kind of takes the topline budget out of the political football realm and puts it into a little bit more regular order," Carlisle said.
Added Fanning, a former Army secretary: "We have an annual budget that we create every year and gets passed every year, which is just not an effective way to plan for the Department of Defense based on how long it takes to build the equipment and to train the people who use it."
The current budget, with seemingly annual continuing resolutions "is very disruptive for the Department of Defense and for industry to plan around that."
"Absolutely the most important thing we can do for the department and for the industrial base is to get some stability back into the process," Fanning said. "If we can lengthen that planning timeline that's even better."
Harrington said CRs hurt technology development.
"The pace of change of technology is just ever going, ever increasing, so you can't just take a time out and expect yourself to stay up with you adversaries and competition," he said.
So what's the outlook going for 2020 and beyond?
"Most people are expecting that the current defense budget is a highwater mark no matter what happens in the next election," Fanning said. "In many ways it's great that we've had two good years for the department to catch up on some things, but…there needs to be some commitment, some understanding, and some stability for a very long horizon."
Gen. Dave Goldfein, the Air Force Chief of Staff, said Wednesday that 2021 might be "the last good year," after two years of far-above-inflation growth.
JUST IN: Right as we were about to hit send, the Pentagon sent this list of consequences of a six-month continuing resolution:
Army:
31 production rate increases will be delayed, putting at risk programs like the UH-60M helicopter and necessary Stryker upgrades.
Army modernization efforts for the Assured-Positioning, Navigation and Timing Cross Functional Team will be postponed, preventing procurement of new capabilities valued and halting the current fielding of systems to 2nd Cavalry Regiment and rotational Armored Brigade Combat Teams executing missions across Europe.
Air Force:
Munitions procurement will be reduced by 1,000 Joint Direct Attack Munition tailkits, 99 Sidewinder Air-to-Air Missiles and 665 Small Diameter Bomb II munitions, which will constrain industrial production capabilities and delay inventory buildup.
F-15EX development and production will be delayed, which will force the Air Force to operate and sustain an aging F-15C fleet longer than planned, incurring added extensive maintenance actions.
Navy:
Operation and Maintenance shortfalls will curtail 14 ship availabilities, cancel ship underway training, and shutdown non-deployed CVW/expeditionary squadrons.
The delivery of one VIRGINIA SSN, one Fleet Ocean Tug, and two Landing Craft Utility vessels will be delayed.
