Post by bazooka on Jan 22, 2020 1:48:34 GMT
Erdogan is a disciple of a myopic, neo-Ottoman vision for Turkey. It’s the subject of a book called Stratejik Derinlik (Strategic Depth) written by an adviser to Erdogan, the late Ahmed Davutoglu. This neo-Ottoman vision is an attempt to bring to life the late 19th Century period of Turkish rule of Sultan Abdulhamid. Basically, it revolves around reaching out to the Arab States to create an informal neo-Ottoman sphere of influence, and rebuild past glories. What’s not to like? Erdogan might even declare himself the leader of the Faithful - the new Caliph! A good start to the plan was when Turkey became leader of the Organization of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) for 10 years, from 2004.
One big problem! Turkey is officially a secular country. You can’t claim to be the leader of the Islamic world while ostensibly representing the same values as the West. So, step one was to make his own political party, the Justice and Development Party, a religious party with an Islamic agenda. Imprisoning his critics — 100s of journalists languish in Turkish prisons today — helps to make the transition from secularism to something more like the Ottoman system of religious values a stealth project.
To polish his shining religious credentials, Erdogan has reached out to the more extreme elements, like Hamas. Currently, the Hamas leadership is being wined and dined at the Turkish taxpayers’ expense, despite an agreement with the Israelis in 2015 that no such thing would happen! He picks fights with allies, like NATO, by buying Russian S400s. He threatens to flood Europe with 3 million Syrian refugees if Europe doesn’t let him have his way. All of this strutting and declaiming on the world stage is ‘braggadocio’ to underline his claim to a throne that was vacated by the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1918.
However, the weakness in his plan is that its success depends on the Arab world being the way it was hundreds of years ago. But times have moved on. The Arab world is becoming polarized between those who cling to a world view that is 1,400 years old, and those who wish to make progress. Erdogan’s popularity in the Arab world is based on the appeal to an ideal that is fading fast. The proof is that Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh are his best friends, not the Royal families scattered throughout the Middle East.
The jewel in the crown of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman fixation is Jerusalem. By allying with the Northern wing of the Islamic Movement in Israel, Erdogan is able to present himself as a defender of Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Northern wing of the Islamic movement, denies Israel’s right to exist, calls for replacing the State of Israel with an Islamic Caliphate, and was outlawed by Israel in 2015. Birds of a feather ……….
And so, Erdogan is popular, certainly; but the basis for that popularity is under pressure from history. It cannot resist. Erdogan’s myopic vision belongs to a past that failed - that’s why it no longer exists. He will also fail.
